The handwriting on the wall?

Joe Polidoro, a pharmaceuticals salesman, is a political independent, the proverbial "swing vote" on which Election 2012 probably hinges. He recently met Republican Jon Huntsman in Alton Bay, N.H. "I think he's smarter than the others," Polidoro told Slate writer David Weigel. "He makes sense. I mean, look who else you've got out there—Rick Perry, he wants to secede from the country! I thought that was settled by the Supreme Court in the 19th century. You can't secede from the country." So what other Republicans does he like? "I voted for Obama last time," Polidoro says. "The Republicans aren't giving him time to try to get us out of this [mess]. It's really a disgrace." Weigel keeps pressing: So, if the election came down to Huntsman or Obama, who would he vote for? Polidoro thinks about it for a couple seconds. "I'd probably vote for Obama," he says. So, to recap, Perry is a non-starter for swing voters (if Polidoro is representative). Note that Mitt Romney's name never came up. And Huntsman, arguably the best (but unlikeliest) candidate the GOP could field against Obama in 2012, would still lose to Obama in a head-to-head contest. Also note where this swing voter is placing the blame for the political mess we're in. The GOP doesn't know it yet, but this could be hard evidence for why they are likely to lose ― and lose big ― in 2012.