Beltway Logic

Outside the Washington I-495 beltway, logic is generally defined as "reasoning conducted or assessed according to strict principles of validity." Inside the beltway, logic is, well, something else. This morning, for example, Dana Milbank argued that Herman Cain could still become the GOP nominee for president. Yes, the notion left me dumbfounded, too. But humor me and keep reading. Milbank's DC "logic" is simple. For GOP candidates, winning the Iowa primary is key to winning the nomination. But because so few Iowans vote in the primary, major polls cannot predict their "true sentiment" (i.e., nuttiness level) since the sample is too small to measure accurately. Ergo, a few thousand crazies could end up handing Cain the nomination. "For that reason, it would be foolish to rule out any candidate — even the former Godfather’s Pizza chief executive," Milbank wrote. To the extent that literally anything is possible, Milbank is not wrong. (See how that DC "logic" works? You can't dismiss his punditry outright.) There's no need to punch holes in the presumptions holding up Milbank's shaky house of cards. They're obvious. I'm just amazed at what passes for political analysis these days. As for Mr. Cain's long-shot chances, Joe Scarborough gets it exactly right: Crazy. Never. Wins.