British Prime Minister Stanley Baldwin once said: "A statesman wants courage and a statesman wants vision; but believe me, after six months' experience, he wants first, second, third and all the time ― patience." President Obama would second this notion, especially with respect to Libya. It's difficult to see through the proverbial fog of war. It's easy to overstate the meaning of fragmentary good news. But reports that the Libyan rebels are converging on Tripoli is encouraging. The noose may indeed be tightening around Qaddafi's neck. The much-maligned conflict (i.e., "Obama's Folly") could be entering its endgame phase. The next few days will tell the tale.
To paraphrase Sun Tzu, all successful warfare is based on deception, cleverness and forethought. There are those on the impatient right, Sen. McCain among them, who wanted to land the Marines on the Shores of Tripoli (again). But Sun Tzu would argue: "The general, unable to control his irritation, will launch his men to the assault like swarming ants, with the result that one-third of his men are slain, while the town still remains untaken. Such are the disastrous effects of a siege." Imagine the mess we'd be in had we invaded. Sure, we would have knocked off Qaddafi. But once we broke it, we owned it. And all the king's horses and all the king's men would not be able to put Libya back together again (see Iraq). Instead, Obama opted to follow another Sun Tzu axiom: "The skillful leader subdues the enemy's troops without any fighting; he captures their cities without laying siege to them; he overthrows their kingdom without lengthy operations in the field. With his forces intact he will dispute the mastery of the Empire, and thus, without losing a man, his triumph will be complete. This is the method of attacking by stratagem." In this way, the Libyans themselves take out Qaddafi. And we won't lose a single American life. Nor does a six-month campaign (a blink of an eye in war) constitute a "quagmire" as some on the left feared this would become.
Yes, the political aftermath in Libya will surely be a mess. But with our principal goal achieved (Qaddafi's ouster), the mess will be theirs, not ours. If this ends the way I suspect it will, Obama's Folly will prove George Savile correct yet again: "A man who is a master of patience is master of everything else." And if this is a sample of Obamaesque folly, more please.
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