So, is it Perry?

Uh oh. Rick Perry has vaulted to a double-digit lead over his Republican rivals, says the latest CNN poll. Mitt Romney, who has the most to lose, is getting smoked. He's at 18% in contrast to Perry's 32% support among Republicans. It's still too early for Perry to start measuring the drapes. But his forward momentum is undeniable. Jon Chait has a good, level-headed take: "Perry isn't a lock, but something has to happen to take him down, or he will win. In general, early polls mean a great deal in Republican primaries. They're not perfect, but they are strong indicators. ... You can't assume that all voters are picking their candidates ideologically, but there is surely an ideological component at work. If and when the field gets narrowed to a Perry-Romney race, Perry will be in a commanding position to increase his share. Unless something knocks him off." At this point, I'd say it's Perry's to lose unless Romney can quickly prove that he's more than an empty suit.