Reading the tea leaves

The other day, I postulated that to fuel Libyan rebel momentum the coalition had no choice but to arm them. There are now signs (courtesy of a timely leak to the Washington Post) that this may indeed happen. Here’s what the tea leaves reveal to me.

From the Post: “The United States and its allies are considering whether to supply weapons to the Libyan opposition as coalition airstrikes fail to dislodge government forces from around key contested towns.” TRANSLATION: The allies already know air power alone won’t get the job done. Militarily, that’s a historical given. So, the question is not whether to arm the rebels, but how. That’s what the talks are really about.

“Obama administration believes the United Nations resolution that authorized international intervention in Libya has the ‘flexibility’ to allow such assistance [. . .] Officials were having ‘the full gamut’ of discussions on ‘potential assistance we might offer, both on the non-lethal and the lethal side,’ but that no decisions had been made.” TRANSLATION: Obama has likely green-lighted the “lethal side” already. He and his team are now eyeing how to ramp up arm transfers via cut-outs (Saudi Arabia and/or Egypt), supplemented by our own covert means (via special forces ops).

“France actively supports training and arming the rebels.” TRANSLATION: The French Foreign Legion (or similar special ops unit) will shortly put boots on the ground to train the opposition. Bet on it.

The guts of this Washington Post story are a strategic leak from the White House. It’s a way to gently break the news that we’re likely taking it up a notch or two in Libya. (Also, it likely previews elements of Obama’s planned national address on Libya next week.) Directly arming and training the rebels carries risks. There is the specter of “boots on the ground” even if they belong to trainers. (Hence the coordinated French leak.) Some critics will call arming the rebels “mission creep.” Others will scream, “What took you so long!”

Though the rebels remain a rabble, the news is not all bad. NBC’s Richard Engel - who’s reporting from the front lines - said their performance is improving. Al-Jazeera reported the same. The big news of rebel gains on Saturday confirmed Engel’s observations (he’s one of the few foreign correspondents who know of what he speaks.) Engel said fresh weapons and ammo are also arriving from the Saudis. More importantly, per Engel, AWOL soldiers from the Libyan Army are beginning to join the rebels out of fear of being caught on the wrong side of history. If true (and sufficient numbers join), that could quickly bolster the rebel war-fighting ability.