Thursday, March 24, 2011

It's still guessing, folks

According to the estimable Fareed Zakaria, here's the BAD NEWS: "Thus far, this whole discussion has been about process, not strategy. And strategy is more worrying. President Obama has repeatedly stated a goal — regime change in Libya — and yet outlined quite limited means by which to achieve it. The coalition has launched air attacks against Gaddafi's regime, but they are mainly designed to prevent him from attacking his own civilians. What if Gaddafi actually abided by a cease-fire? There is little evidence that the rebels can topple him. He would still control most of his country, his army and his many resources. You know your strategy is flawed if your problems mount when it succeeds." The GOOD NEWS: Obama reads Zakaria (I hope). More importantly, bear something in mind. Neither Zarakia (among the smartest of observers) nor any other pundit is sitting in the room with Obama. Ergo, they actually have no idea whether or not Obama's plans for "regime change" (if that's what it is) is beefy enough to achieve it. Zakaria may know more than you do, but in the end, he is just guessing like everyone else (including moi).

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