Tuesday, March 29, 2011

Libya through Sun Tzu's eyes

VIEWING matters through the ancient but wise lens of Sun Tzu, President Obama surely knows: "The enlightened ruler is heedful, and the good general full of caution." He and his Pentagon have clearly demonstrated this given their reluctance to "go kinetic" in Libya. They were wise to look before leaping.

Given his assertion in last night's speech (Iraq was a costly blunder), Obama also understands that: "There has never been a protracted war from which a country has benefited." It's why he wants out of Afghanistan and will avoid getting bogged down in Qaddafi's Saharan sands.

Since we're not in the room, there's no real way of knowing if Team Obama understands that: "Strategy without tactics is the slowest route to victory. Tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat." On the latter, I worry a bit about the tactically-minded Hillary Clinton, a pol who is prone to put tactics before strategy. It is a core reason why she lost to Obama in 2008, and the source of my lingering discomfort with her. It lies in the secretary of state’s purview to devise grand strategy for the president, especially in regard to the volatile Middle East. Obama is rightly criticized for not having one (hence the ongoing kerfuffle over the so-called “Obama Doctrine”). The blame can largely be laid at Hillary’s feet. But I digress.

Since Obama is actively undermining Qaddaffi's critical supports (cutting off his money, crushing his army's will to fight, isolating his apparatchiks and political base), Obama appears to have embraced another crucial Tzu tenet: "What is of supreme importance in war is to attack the enemy's strategy." Qaddafi's strategy is to stay in power. Time, of course, will tell the true tale of whether these maxims were taken to heart. Success or failure may depend on it.

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