Friday, July 29, 2011

Is the GOP using the 'Madman Theory?'

Clearly, some in Republican circles (think Tea Party Hobbits) believe "Failure Is An Option" when it comes to the debt ceiling, even if it means mutually assured destruction ― for them and us.

This rang a bell with Cato Institute scholar Julian Sanchez. Has the Grand Old Party dusted off the old "Madman Theory," the one devised and implemented by the American Machiavelli himself, Richard Milhouse Nixon?

Sanchez explains:
"During the cold war, [Nixon] notoriously developed his 'madman theory,' a stratagem of having senior aides [Kissinger principal among them] circulate their 'concerns' that Nixon had gone unhinged, and might just hit that big red button if provoked, even though the consequences of a nuclear conflict with the Soviet Union would clearly be catastrophic for the United States even in 'victory' (if that term is even intelligible in the context of nuclear war). Nixon faced the problem of “credible commitment,” as game theorists call it: It’s hard to use a threat as leverage when it would clearly be irrational for you to actually make good on that threat. An opponent who thinks you’re rational, therefore, will discount the threat as an empty bluff. But if your opponent thinks you’re crazy—crazy enough to make good on a threat even when it means mutual ruin—they may just be inclined to give you what you want."
Sanchez wonders if this is the stratagem Republicans are using to face down Obama over the debt issue. Granted, it's a compelling thought and "Madman Theory 2.0" would certainly explain GOP intransigence. "If you don't give us everything we want, then today is a good day to die, Kimosabe." Refuse them, and swoosh. Bye bye economy. The bad news is the Tea Party Hobbit wing of the GOP is indeed crazy. The good news is they're not that clever. I doubt that these right wingers could even spell "Machiavellian" or "Strangelovian" let alone divine their meanings. So, come out from under your school desks. The Cold War is still over.

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