But if cousin Vito held a water gun to Barbie’s head and said, “Gimme your 2012 picks right now – or the doll gets it,” then I'd say the election is Obama's to lose. He is still the most popular politician in the land. And if history is any guide, he will be a formidable candidate (the road to Rome, as they say, is littered with the political corpses of those who doubted his campaign skills). The economy’s health will be a determining factor, but not the only one. If Obama secures the independent vote, then it’s game over, Vito.
On the Republican side, I can barely see the tea leaves let alone read them. But I suspect Mitt Romney will become the GOP nominee by default. To me, he's the only electable candidate among the likely GOP entrants. (If Sarah Palin runs – and that’s a big if – her campaign will be distracting, short-lived, and the mother of all freak shows. And if by divine intervention she won the nomination, then Obama is guaranteed a 50-state landslide.) Though Romney is smart, rational and a pragmatist at heart, he’s desperately trying to cloak himself in ill-fitting Tea Party garb. It only adds to his reputation as a spineless panderer. Also, he’s about as exciting as watching paint dry, even for Republicans. It’s a safe bet Obama would clobber him.
Sorry Vito, but today I see no Republicans who can beat Obama in 2012. The one politician who might give Obama a run for his money, Jeb Bush, isn’t running. Though it’s a stretch, I could spin a plausible scenario in which Chris Christie (Vito's favorite), Mike Pence or John Thune might be competitive. But all have declined to run. Thune (an empty suit) formally bowed out today. Jon Huntsman, Obama’s ambassador to China, is another undeclared wannabe. The ex-Republican governor of Utah, now burnished with foreign policy expertise, is eminently qualified to be president. I’m told he’s even charismatic. But Huntsman is a moderate linked with Obama, and therefore a leper. So scratch Huntsman. Ex-Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty (another moderate forced to don Tea Party garb) has lit no fires to date and remains at the bottom of every GOP poll. The remaining GOP field (Gingrich, Huckabee, Trump, Bachmann, etc) are all Loony Tunes destined for history’s ash heap along with Palin.
And so the trap is sprung. The Republican establishment is now realizing how much damage the Tea Party and Palin have wrecked on the once Grand Old Party. The reactionaries have made it impossible for any moderate candidate with gravitas to win the 2012 nomination. And sensible Republicans know they cannot win the presidency without the political center, the place where most Americans live. Even if a Jeb Bush or Huntsman could magically surmount the party’s current dogma (i.e., the politics of the paranoid), they would still have to face-off against a popular sitting president in an improving economy. “That way madness lies,” as the Bard might advise, since most incumbent presidents win decisively.
Therefore, I think, the Republican “best of breed” will sit out 2012. By 2016, Obama will have left the building, Palin will have flamed-out, and the GOP will have awakened from its Tea Party fever dream. The presidential field will be wide open on both sides. The chance for a fresh start will beckon. The only potential fly in the ointment is the Democrats fielding another Obama archetype, perhaps this time in womanly form. You laugh? See Kamala D. Harris, California’s new attorney general. They’re already calling her the “Female Obama.”
Okay, Vito, satisfied now? Put the gun down Vito. No, your Gov. Christie can't win. Yes, Vito, I know you're both from New Jersey. Move away from the doll, Vito ...
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