My bet, if I had to make one, is that the FNC/RNC will do extremely well, get even more wacky, overplay their hand, nominate Palin for president and then usher in a real and more solid Democratic majority with Obama empowered in ways he hasn't been so far. Which is worse for conservatism - and the country - in the long run than constructive engagement with the president now. But that's a scenario far too far ahead to predict for sure. The economy is the wild card.If you read Sullivan regularly, you know he thinks Palin is the sign of the apocalypse. Nevertheless, his reasoning about Mama Grizzly is not beyond the pale, I’m sorry to say. Yet I suspect the Republicans will not do as well in the midterms as projected by the convention wisdom (though I'm prepared to eat my hat given the level of voter irrationality this year). I doubt Palin will run, let alone secure the GOP nomination. From day one, it’s always been about Sarah, first and foremost. So why gamble wrecking her money-making machine and risk-free role as a wingnut maven? That said, would she run if the political Red Sea miraculously opened? Yeah, probably. And, yeah, she is that delusional.
But I just don’t see a rational scenario where the Republican establishment just hands the Party keys to a half-term governor and her First Dude. They won’t admit it publicly, but sane Republicans know such a situation would put both conservatism and the nation at risk. Yes, the GOP is often dumb, but it’s not stupid (at least not yet). They know an Obama-Palin contest would hand Obama a 50-state landslide and a mandate to match. And if wouldn’t matter one whit whether the economy in 2012 remained in bad shape.
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