GOP vs. Palin – is it on?

In a post ("Handicapping Doomsday") a couple of weeks back, I pooh-poohed the notion of Sarah Palin winning the Republican presidential nomination in 2012. I said it won’t happen. No way, no how. And now, it seems, my thesis is being buttressed from an unexpected quarter on the right.

Just covering the ground lightly, I argued/ranted:

"I just don’t see a rational scenario where the Republican establishment just hands the Party keys to a half-term governor and her First Dude. They won’t admit it publicly, but sane Republicans know such a situation would put both conservatism and the nation at risk. Yes, the GOP is often dumb, but it’s not stupid. They know an Obama-Palin contest would hand Obama a 50-state landslide and a mandate to match. And if wouldn’t matter one whit whether the economy in 2012 remained in bad shape."

Emerging from the blackness like Darth Vader, Karl Rove just signaled that he agrees, albeit subtly. He told the UK’s Daily Telegraph that he questioned Palin’s viability as a White House contender. Going further, he cast doubt on her “gravitas” for the job.

Do tell us more, Mr. Vader:

“With all due candor, appearing on your own reality show on the Discovery Channel, I am not certain how that fits in the American calculus of 'that helps me see you in the Oval Office’.”

“Being the vice-presidential nominee on the ticket is different from saying 'I want to be the person at the top of the ticket’.”

“There are high standards that the American people have for it [the presidency] and they require a certain level of gravitas, and they want to look at the candidate and say 'that candidate is doing things that gives me confidence that they are up to the most demanding job in the world’.”

Wrapping up, the Telegraph said Rove suggested that “outside of the true believers”, most Republican primary voters were still watching the race and would choose the candidate most suitable for the role. “They are going to be saying 'the person who can win is the person who proves to me that they are up to the job’,” Rove said.

This, noble friends, is what we call a political tell, a subtle but unmistakable shift in the electoral winds, a dog whistle to the GOP establishment, if you will.

It is true that the GOP strayed off their traditional compound and galloped full-tilt into Tea Party coo-coo land. (Drinking their cache of Simple Jack’s Potion No. 9 didn’t help.) But they did it to (a) secure short-term political gains and (b) tarnish President Obama’s scary messianic halo. Republicans will probably recapture the House in the midterms. Obama’s poll numbers have fallen (though not catastrophically). So, I’d say the GOP succeeded in their twin goals, more or less.

That said, Republicans are a coldly calculating lot with outsized cojones. They’d feed their mothers to the wolves if it guaranteed them the presidency. And they’ll shotgun a Mama Grizzly with a 12-gauge without so much as a by-your-leave, ma’am – and laugh about it afterward at the GOP Gentleman’s Club. They work hard at appearing stupid. They’re not. And Rove is anything but stupid. Any man that could get George W. Bush elected – twice – is the very definition of shock & awe.

Bush’s Brain and his adult GOP compatriots know Sarah Palin Boulevard leads directly to political oblivion, or worst. They know that Obama, barring some catastrophic misstep or another Great Depression, is unbeatable in 2012. They know that 2016 is the real target date for reclaiming the presidency. And they know they must end the Tea Party reality show to regain political viability at the national level. When the time comes, and come it will, the Republicans will throw Palin and the Political Pod People she spawned under the bus. Bet on it. Karl Rove’s poker tell is merely the beginning.

So, yes, it’s on. The slow-motion game to retake the Republican Party from the Republican Party is afoot.