What not to do in Libya

This morning, Tom Ricks (author of the bestselling Fiasco: The American Military Adventure in Iraq) wrote, "One of the nice things in life is to have friends smarter than yourself."

Over the weekend, these wizened sages persuaded him that "we need to do something in Libya" ASAP because time, it’s a wastin’.

The best option, they counsel, is to immediately arm the Libyan rebels with secure communications gear and thousands of rocket-propelled grenades to knock off Qaddafi's tanks. Option 2 (call it Operation Black Hawk Down II) involves sending Special Operations troops to capture or kill Qaddafi. Option 3 is to "throw up" a hasty no-fly zone. We'd save time and minimize our footprint by not mounting air strikes. We'd simply blow stuff out of the air under a "you fly, you die" mandate. The real purpose of the NFZ would be to provide cover for Option 2. Ricks says the Pentagon should be ready to green-light options 2 and 3 – in 72 hours.

Ricks imagines President Obama could get all of the above moving post-haste if he ordered his defense secretary and the Joint Chiefs of Staff to the White House, gravely locked eyes with each man, and then went all Henry V on them: “Don't tell me what I can't do in Libya. Tell me what you can do. Give me a list of options. And give them to me within 24 hours, because push may be coming to shove, and I don't want to see Qaddafi prevail.” The only thing missing from this fantasy scene is Obama saying, "Gentlemen, synchronize your watches . . . 3, 2, 1 – HACK!"

I'm surprised Ricks (a smart guy) bought into this nonsense so easily. Option 1: Which rebels do we arm and who will train them? What if there’s another Qaddafi (or somebody worse) in their ranks? Ricks doesn't say. Option 2: Stealthily inserting a Delta Force team into Libya to snatch Qaddafi would make a fabulous movie sequel to Black Hawk Down. In real life, it's a suicide mission. Ricks doesn't say how the team penetrates a fanatically-defended presidential compound - in the middle of Tripoli - to get anywhere near Qaddafi. Also, do we know where Qaddafi is, precisely, at any given moment? Option 3: If we don't take out Libyan air defense units before mounting a NFZ, how many U.S. pilots are Ricks' friends prepared to sacrifice to surface-to-air missiles?

In short, the counsel Ricks received from his weekend friends has all the sagacity of adolescents playing Duke Nukem on Xbox. So it should come as no surprise that nary a word was spoken about any geo-political consequences of pursuing Options 1 through 3, especially of the unintended variety.

If military intervention is deemed vital, then we would be wiser to mimic the tactics we used to topple the Taliban in Afghanistan. That is, deploy small special ops teams (this time under the banner of NATO) to equip, advise and (if necessary) lead the rebels against Qaddafi. I’d also bring back “gunboat diplomacy” by parking part of our fleet outside Tripoli harbor. The move wouldn’t intimidate Qaddafi (he’s crazy), but it could strongly encourage his remaining generals to switch sides.

Lastly, if Obama does green-light a NFZ, then know we’re essentially declaring war. Ergo, we should take out Qaddafi’s air bases (all of them), air defenses units, and communications networks before putting the “you fly, you die” policy into effect. I’d also lob a few smart-bombs into likely Qaddafi hideouts in Tripoli just for good measure. We might get lucky.