Wither the Libyan Army?

Is there crow dinner with all the trimmings in my future? Will air power alone carry the day in Libya after all? I’m starting to wonder.

Benghazi, a city that nearly fell into Qaddafi’s lap like ripe fruit only a week ago, is now secure. Since Friday, key coastal towns along the road to Tripoli are falling like dominoes into rebel hands. Ajdabiya. Check. Brega, Ras Lanuf and Bin Jawwad. Check, check and check. The rebels are now quickly approaching Surt, Qaddafi’s hometown and site of a major garrison. Their line of march (via a ragtag collection of jerry-rigged buses, cars and taxis) is being preceded by heavy NATO airstrikes, per news accounts. Some observers say if Surt falls, the center of Qaddafi tribal-political base, it’s “game over.”

So, the rebels are winning, right? Yes, apparently, sort of. Forces loyal to Qaddafi have clearly done an about face. The Libyan government is calling it a “tactical pullback.” That’s really a euphemism for headlong retreat. Though there is fighting, the field is largely being left to the rebels. That accounts for the quick victories. Mr. Smart Bomb, courtesy of NATO, is what is actually putting the fear of Allah into Qaddafi’s foot soldiers. And they’re tripping over each other as they run from the possibility of becoming the newest martyrs.

History has proven again and again that airstrikes won’t dislodge determined (and dug-in) ground troops. And I’ll stand by that maxim. But the key word here is “determined.” I’m told that being at or near the receiving end of modern air-to-ground munitions make Hades look like Heaven. It seems unlikely that Qaddafi’s army of half-hearted conscripts will bear up long under this onslaught. A total breakdown of the army’s will to fight – exacerbated by constant retreat and thinning ranks – is a distinct possibility. If this turns out to be the case, then, yes, we could have a new ballgame.