OMG! OMG! They’re winning!

WITHIN DAYS of the intervention, the media wrote off the Libyan rebels as a rabble too discombobulated to exploit coalition airstrikes. Conservative pundits wailed that President “no-strategy” Obama was too busy “dithering” to change the dynamics on the ground. Never mind that the war was only six days old.

Suddenly, on Saturday, it’s OMG! OMG! They’re winning! The New York Times: “Qaddafi Forces Pull Back as Rebels Retake Ajdabiya.” The Washington Post: “Libyan rebels take back key town.” The Huffington Post: “GADDAFI RETREATS! HUGE REBEL TURNAROUND!”

Take about a prescription for whiplash. Judging from the headlines, the rebels have morphed from ragtag Bedouins to Roman Legionnaires overnight.

Yes, the average soldier in Qaddafi’s army – with a moistened finger raised to the wind – knows he’s in deep kimchi if he keeps fighting. Many are actively thinking “AWOL” as a career move. Yes, starting today, the wobbly Libyan Army could rapidly retreat in the face of withering airstrikes, leaving the field to the rebels. Yes, loyalist forces could begin collapsing from Ajdabiya to Tripoli like dominoes, clearing the way for the endgame parade in Martyrs' Square. Yes, Lady Luck might suddenly squeeze us to her ample bosom and hand Obama a quick victory.

But take a deep breath, folks – and keep the champagne corked. Hoping for luck’s embrace makes not a reliable strategy. Rebel gains have come mainly from Qaddafi’s retreat. Competent warrior legions led by a Libyan Spartacus have not arisen from the sands. Moreover, history has repeatedly proven that air power alone will not force an army completely from the field. Most importantly, air power (apart from a lucky bull’s-eye) won’t dislodge Qaddafi, the main problem. Only the prospect of his imminent demise – via incarceration, a firing squad, a garrote or a noose – will do that.

So, like it or not, creating effective leverage against Qaddafi will require arming (and probably training) key rebel units. Short of deploying the 82nd Airborne or Lady Luck’s acquiescence, there’s no other way to create a palatable outcome in Libya. This is why, per the Times, Obama and the allies are still plotting strategy to oust Qaddafi despite today’s welcome albeit exaggerated news of rebel success.

Though banking on fortune is foolish, I don’t discount the ill effects that allied bombing is likely having on Qaddafi’s forces. Retreating (as they appear to be doing) will only compound bad morale and invite something more fatal: panic. And panic, to paraphrase a famous Henry Fonda line from the movie In Harm’s Way, can run through an army like a virus and destroy its will to win. Here’s hoping Lady Luck shows up for a change – and spreads the germ.